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  The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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  One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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  “If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
  Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.
  
  Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”
  
  Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.
  
  Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.
  
  “The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.
  
  Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.
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  When the Japanese artist Shimabuku was 31 years old, he took an octopus on a tour of Tokyo. After catching it from the sea with the help of a local fisherman in Akashi, a coastal city over 3 hours away from the Japanese capital by train, he transported the live creature in a temperature-controlled tank of seawater to show it the sights of Tokyo before returning it safely to its home the same day.
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  “I thought it would be nice,” the artist, now 56, said about the experience, over a video call from his home in Naha, Japan. “I started to travel when I was 20 years old. But octopuses, maybe they don’t travel so much — and when they do, they are just going to be eaten. I wanted to take an octopus on a trip, but not to be eaten.”
  
  Documenting it on video, Shimabuku took the octopus to see the Tokyo Tower, before visiting the Tsukiji fish market, where the animal “reacted very strongly” to seeing other octopuses on sale, the artist said. “Octopuses are smart — maybe he told his experience to his octopus friends in the sea (after returning).”
  
  The interspecies day trip, resulting in the 2000 video work “Then, I Decided to Give a Tour of Tokyo to the Octopus from Akashi,” kickstarted a series of projects Shimabuku has undertaken over the decades that engage with octopuses in playful, inquisitive ways. A portion of this work is currently on show in the UK, in two exhibitions that explore humanity’s relationship with nature and animal life: “More than Human” at the Design Museum in London (through October 5) and “Sea Inside” at the Sainsbury Centre in Norwich (through October 26).
  Fascinated by what the sea creatures might think, feel, or like, Shimabuku has documented their reactions to various experiences, from the city tour of Tokyo to being given specially crafted artworks. “They have a curiosity,” he said. “For some other animals, it’s only about eating and making love. But I think octopuses have time to wander — time for hobbies.”
  
  When he lived in the Japanese city of Kobe, Shimabuku would go on fishing trips with local fisherman, taking the opportunity to learn about octopuses. “Traditionally we catch octopuses in empty ceramic pots — that’s my hometown custom,” he said. Fishermen would throw hundreds of pots into the sea, wait two days, then retrieve them — finding octopuses inside. “Octopuses like narrow spaces so they just come into it,” explained Shimabuku.
  
  When he saw the animals within the pots, he discovered they were “carrying things”: shells, stones, even bits of broken beer bottles. He began to save the small objects the octopuses had gathered — “a collection of a collection,” he said.